The US Dollar Index held near 102.40 on Monday, holding just below a two-week high as market participants adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the session. The 0.3% daily gain kept the dollar index hovering above the 102 handle, with traders positioning for a potential breakout if the Fed's statement strikes a more hawkish tone than expected. The Fed is widely anticipated to hold its policy rate steady, with the focus shifting to the projected path for the remaining meetings of the year.

Interest-rate expectations have become the dominant driver of dollar pricing, with the US 10-year yield trading near 5% as investors weigh the Fed's next move. The yield differential between US Treasuries and comparable sovereign debt continues to support the greenback, and the Fed's dot plot projections will be scrutinized for any revision to the December hike probability that currently sits at roughly 85%. A hawkish hold that signals conviction and keeps that 85% December probability elevated could push the dollar index toward 103.30 before the Thanksgiving holiday week.

Euro-area economics head in the opposite direction, with EUR/USD testing fresh mensais lows around 1.1120 as the common currency faces a dual headwind from energy costs and political uncertainty. French fiscal concerns have added a risk premium to the euro slide, with the projected budget deficit for the coming year expected to exceed 6%. The European Central Bank's Thursday meeting adds another catalyst, as investors look for any signal that the ECB may be falling behind the curve on inflation that has persisted at roughly 2.6% above target.

Sterling also comes under pressure, with GBP/USD holding near 1.33 as UK gilt yields inch higher ahead of Wednesday's budget announcement. The Chancellor's fiscal statement is expected to include a modest increase in public spending, which markets interpret as inflationary given the Bank of England's current pause in rate cuts. The BoE's MPC meets in two weeks, and the combination of a GBP/USD level near 1.33 and a firm dollar sets up a challenging environment for the pound in the near term.

The yen faces similar pressure, with USD/JPY holding around 157.90 as the Bank of Japan maintains its yield curve control framework. The 157.90 level represents a key inflection point where intervention threats from Japanese authorities historically emerge, and the Ministry of Finance's repeated warnings about excessive moves have kept the yen's decline within a controlled band. USD/CAD at 1.4060 reflects the relative strength of the US economy against Canadian commodities exports.

Commodity markets add another dimension to the macro picture. Oil prices have reaccelerated, with Brent crude holding above $85 per barrel as Middle East supply concerns persist. The economy_gold_oil bucket is particularly sensitive to the interplay between energy costs and rate policy, and the Fed's characterization of inflation persistence at roughly 2.6% will influence not just the dollar but also the broader commodity complex that has struggled to find bid in recent weeks.

The Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET is the primary catalyst, with economists expecting the committee to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.50%. The key variable is the number of projected rate cuts in the Summary of Economic Projections, which traders use to calibrate their December hike probability. The CME FedWatch tool shows roughly 85% of market participants expect at least one additional increase before the end of the year, making the tone of the statement the critical variable.

Thursday brings a cluster of tier-one data releases that will test the dollar's resilience. The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and the September personal consumption expenditures report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge at 3.1% on a 12-month basis, both arrive at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists project core PCE inflation running close to 3.1%, a number that will matter greatly for rate-cut pricing and, by extension, for the dollar's trajectory through the remainder of the year.

The S&P 500 is also a key input to the dollar trade, with the index settling at 7,623.68 on Friday, down 0.8% for the week despite a tech rally that supported the Nasdaq. The 0.8% weekly decline reflects the dollar's strength siphoning momentum from equities, and the 7,600 to 7,680 band has emerged as the primary battlefield for directional conviction. The 200-day moving average near 7,650 now acts as a gravitational center that the index oscillates around as rate uncertainty dominates.

ECB and BoJ decisions add a global dimension to the dollar's story. The ECB meets on Thursday and is expected to hold steady, while the BoJ convenes on Friday with markets bracing for any adjustment to the yield curve control framework that has anchored JGB yields near 1.1%. The USD/JPY pair's trajectory at 157.90 depends heavily on whether the BoJ signals a willingness to let the yen weaken further, and the 1.33 level for GBP/USD will be tested by the UK budget's fiscal implications.

Market structure shows concentrated positioning around the 102.40 pivot, with options implied volatility elevated as traders price in a wide range of Fed outcomes. The VIX's term structure has flattened ahead of the meeting, reflecting the concentrated event risk that Wednesday's decision presents. Cross-asset correlations have tightened, and the dollar's role as a funding currency means that a dovish surprise could trigger broad-based risk-on flows that compress currency volatility.

Overall, the dollar's near-term trajectory hinges on the Fed's tone and the 85% December hike probability that currently prices in another rate increase. The 102.40 level serves as the immediate pivot, with 102.00 offering near-term support and 103.30 representing the next meaningful resistance. The confluence of the Fed decision, Q3 GDP, and the core PCE reading creates a packed 48-hour window that will define the dollar's direction through the remainder of 2026, with energy costs and euro-area politics adding further layers of complexity to the macro trade.

Análise de mercado

O DXY mantém-se em 102.40 (alta de 0,3%) enquanto os mercados aguardam a decisão da Fed de quarta-feira, com rendimentos de 10 anos próximos a 5% e 85% de probabilidade de aumento em dezembro. EUR/USD em 1.1120, GBP/USD em 1.33, USD/JPY em 157.90, USD/CAD em 1.4060. S&P 500 em 7,623.68, com queda de 0,8% esta semana. Previsão de PCE central em 3,1%, PIB do T3 pendente na quarta-feira.